It felt inevitable that this is where the French Open would end up, with Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner playing for the title under the lights at Roland Garros on the final Sunday of the fortnight.
Alcaraz and Sinner have combined to win the last five Grand Slams, but this is the first time that they’ll meet with a major title on the line.
And it couldn’t have come at a better time.
Both Alcaraz, 22, and Sinner, 23, are at the peak of their powers right now.
Alcaraz vs. Sinner betting preview
The Spaniard does own a 7-4 advantage in the head-to-head and has won the last four meetings, including a win in the final at the Rome Masters in May and a five-set thriller in last year’s French Open semifinals.
Still, Sinner could end up as the trendier bet Sunday given his flawless form.
The Italian has not dropped a set at Roland Garros and has won 29 straight in Grand Slams dating back to the Australian Open.
Sinner will also be the fresher of the two players, since he just finished serving a three-month suspension for a banned substance in May.
All Sinner has done since returning to action is win 11 of 12 matches, with 10 of the 11 victories coming via straight sets.
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Sinner is a ridiculous 18-1 in 2025, with the lone blemish coming against Alcaraz on the dirt in Italy.
Not to be outdone, Alcaraz has found another level on the clay this season.
The defending champion at Roland Garros is 15-1 on the surface this season and is 30-5 overall this campaign.
Alcaraz has had some iffy moments this year, most notably a bizarre loss to David Goffin at the Miami Masters, but he’s got more titles (two) than losses (one) since that defeat.
Alcaraz vs. Sinner pick
Alcaraz’s game hasn’t been as clean as Sinner’s during this fortnight at Roland Garros, but that’s not really a knock when comparing him to a player who hasn’t dropped a set in this tournament.
Alcaraz has won every match in four sets or fewer, and he’s responded emphatically anytime he’s been within a mile of trouble in any match.
And in a match where you’re going to struggle to find any decided edge, that could be a good thing for Alcaraz.
While Sinner has been an incredible front-runner this entire season, he’s rarely had to dig deep.
The odds for this historic match couldn’t be tighter. It’s very rare to see a Grand Slam Final close as a pick’em, but we could be headed in that direction Sunday.
You’re really splitting hairs when it comes to handicapping Alcaraz vs. Sinner in a best-of-five match, but the two factors that push me toward the defending champion are his ability to defend against elite serves andthat he’s dealt with some adversity in this fortnight.
Those aren’t the most convincing of arguments, but that’s the nature of trying to find a winner in a battle between two players at the top of their game.
The play: Alcaraz -110 (FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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